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Tuesday, April 29, 2003

Hurray for Adam Smith

I have been thinking about nuclear proliferation and graphite. Oddly my attention is
focused on this because of slightly good news from Beijing: the North Korean
government has finally explained what they want in exchange for dismantling their
nuclear program (and the bombs which they already have) see
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/29/international/worldspecial/29KORE.html

In 1994 the previous North Korean effort to make bombs with plutonium was stopped by a
deal which I find very appealing, even though, North Korea broke the deal by
enriching Uranium. The urgent problem was that they had a graphite mediated reactor
in Yongbon (Chernobyl type) which produces large amounts of plutonium. They extracted
this plutonium and made atomic bombs. The US and, of course, North Korea's neighbors
were alarmed. They reached a deal to replace the reactor with a preasurised light
water reactor (makes much less plutonium) and to give fuel oil while the reactor was
under construction. Notice the other disadvantage of graphite mediated (Chernobyl
type) reactors. They are inherently dangerous as proven at Chernobyl. The reason is
that the mediator (graphite) is not the coolant (water) so loss of coolant does not
slow the nuclear reaction much. The same reactors which are a proliferation threat
are also a disasterous release of radioactive materials threat.

[I plop a technical note here. Uranium is a mixture of uranium 235 which fissions
when it absorves a neutron and uranium 238 which turns into plutonium 239 when it
absorbs a neutron. To obtain a chain reaction it is necessary to avoid absorbtion of
the neutrons by uranium 238. The trick is that uranium 238 absorbs only high energy
(fast flying) neutrons. Nuclear reactors contain a "mediator" which slows down
neutrons so that they are not absorbed by uranium 238 and are absorbed by uranium 235.
If the mediator is also the coolant, loss of coolant means the neutrons are not

slowed down and are absorbed by the uranium 238 slowing (or stopping) the nuclear
reaction. Reactors can work either with good mediators or with little uranium 238
around (that is with highly enriched uranium). For both safety and non proliferation
reasons it is better to work with less highly enriched uranium. For safety it is
better if the mediator (neutron slower) is also the coolant (that's plain English
already isn't it?).]

The Kim Jong IL regime is not easy to deal with (read totally nuts). In the deal the
Yongbon reactor was not dismantled so North Korea could reactivate it, largely it
seems to me, because they were offended to be included in Bush's axis of evil. Still
I love it.

I think that there should be no graphite mediated reactors anywhere in the world.
They are dangerous. I should note that Chernobyl is not the only fire in one of them.
There was a fire (brought under control) in the UK Windscale reactor see
www.em.doe.gov/timeline/oct1957.html (it's name has since been changed to Sellafield
in one of the clumsiest spin efforts in history). They are deadly dangerous and a
clear proliferation threat. Why not promise to replace all graphite mediated reactors
with less dangerous reactors ? Other cases are less alarming that North Korea because
most regimes and all democracies are less crazy than the Kim Jong IL regime but just
the reactor is bad enough. Chernobyl had 4 reactors one of which burned. One reactor
Chernobyl 3 was shut down in December 2000 (to prevent the total idiocy of operating
Chernobyl reactors from reaching the 21st Century I suppose)

Nuclear club coutries are disarming. We don't need more plutonium. I think this
makes the decomissioning of Hanford and Sellafield reactors an urgent issue. It does
not seem to be so considered


I got this from google. I do not read the Telegraph, although the idea of scraping off the
white-out to find the words Osama Bin Laden appeals to me. On the other hand I applaud
U.S. Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon and Congressman Adam Smith of Washington (hey wasn't
there some other guy with that name once?)

An important problem with nuclear nonproliferation efforts is that the idea that nukes
are OK for members of the club but no new members are accepted is very very offensive.
A no graphite mediated reactors rule is equal for everyone and helps ease this
important diplomatic problem. I think all reasoning beings on this planet which
vulnerable to ionizing radiation can agree that graphite moderated reactors are a bad
thing (for us) and ought to be cancelled from the face of the earth.

But whatever happened to heavy water ?

[I plop a historical digression here. The anti proliferation issue more important
than any other (more important than any other issue in history ?) was the effort to
keep nazi Germany from developing a bomb. In fact, they weren't even trying to
develop a bomb. Their aim was just a nuclear reactor (or so claimes Werner
Heisenberg). Outsiders didn't know this and, quite reasonably, decided that any
measure (including making an atomic bomb) was justified in order to prevent Hitler
from controlling all the atomic bombs in the world. The key ingredient in the WWII
era German nuclear energy effort was heavy water. There was a heroic air raid to
destroy the huge complex of tubes used to extract heavy water. There was a morally
ambiguous Norwegian resistance operation in which a bomb was placed on a tanker
carrying heavy water even though the crew was civilian and Norwegian.

Since V.E. day,

heavy water has vanished from the scene. Why didn't the Germans use graphite ? Werner
Heisenberg claims that they didn't because scientists in Berlin said it wouldn't work
and he trusted them and didn't check their calculations. Was this a mistake or a
heroic maybe world saving trick ? Either way who are the (accidental ?) heroes ?]

Nowadays, the nuclear options which are discussed are
1. Graphite mediated reactors (hell no omigod are you crazy or have you figured out how to scare us?)
2. Preasurised light water reactors (better than graphite mediated reactors)
3. no nuclear reactors (would be great except for global warming but hard to get to yes)

It is also possible to generate electricity with Candu a reactor which uses unenriched
uranium and heavy water as a mediator and coolant

Candu is inherently relatively safe compared to light water reactos let alone
graphite mediated reactors. Since the fuel is unenriched, candu type reactors provide
no cover for military uranium enrichment programs. Given the existence of this technology there is
no legitimate civilian need for enriched uranium.

I think a sufficiently immense majority of reasoning beings on this planet who are
vulnerable to ionizing radiation can agree that the any new nuclear reactors must be
of the Candu type that we should be able to impose our will on the nut cases who want
to build more preassurised water reactors and the total total loonies who want to
build graphite mediated nuclear reactors.

So this is my proposal we agree that there are to be no graphite mediated reactors and all new reactors use
natural unenriched Uranium. In exchange assistance to build Candu type reactors and
light water reactor grade uranium is to be provided by nuclear club members to some countries.

I have no fear at all that my proposal will be proven to be a bad idea, because there
is no chance that it will be implemented. I am not afraid that anyone with power is
paying attention to me (no chance of that). In this case I am not afraid to go on
record advocating a policy that coincidentally happens to be implemented and does not work. The
reason is that the proposal involved aid, using carrots not sticks and nuclear
reactors. The sort of people who are willing to fund foreign aid and want to use
carrots not sticks are unwilling to compromise with nuclear reactors. Such people
hate them all and will never accept the idea that a Candu type reactor is less aweful than
a Chernobyl type reactor. The sort of people who are willing to give nuclear reactors a
chance are unwilling to give other countries anything and eager to negotiate based on
threats and not offers. The proposal hits an automatic no button for almost everyone who is not writing this blog.

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