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Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Plan B might work out for Iraq

But only because the B-team was just over-ruled.
Batting 200. I tend to avoid making predictions, but I couldn't resist trying to guess the Iraqi interim government. I hedged a bit by making 5 guesses for 4 positions. Looks like I get 1 out of 5 Ibrahim al-Jaafari is a vice president. My last chance for a decent batting average was that the B team (Brahimi, Blackwill,Bremer and Bush) was trying to impose as President Adnan Pachachi (main qualification he is a Sunni and he doesn't hate Bush). In its last act the IGC insisted on Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawar who is very critical of the occupation.

I think this is very good news, because the interim government has to appear to be independent from the USA to get the support of Iraqis, since the vast majority of Iraqis are very angry at the USA. Also the fact that the IGC which is, at least made up of Iraqis, got its way, might partly mollify Iraqis who are angry over the repeated offences (some inevitable some criminal and stupid) against Iraqi national pride.

Ghazi al-Yawar sue doesn't look pleased (that is he is not crazy).
The Sheik is about my age, so I can take some comfort in the fact that, although I have gotten myself into some bad situations, I've never gotten myself elected president of Iraq.

And what about Ibrahim al-Jaafari. He appeared in an old poll as the most trusted man in Iraq. More recently he came in third making him the man in Iraq with the most support who is actually Iraqi (unlike Sistani) and sane (unlike al Sadr). He gets the vice presidency in a proto parliamentary system in which the prime minister has the real power. If, as cactus Jack Garner said, the US vice presidency is "not worth a bucket of warm s*it" what is the Iraqi interim vice presidency worth ?

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